The present invention relates to systems and methods for estimating delays from planned departure times of aircraft flights.
It is known in the prior art to utilize real-time flight data to estimate the landing time of aircraft that is in flight.
In a first embodiment of the invention there is provided a method of estimating, in real time, the amount of any delay, from a planned departure time, in departure of an aircraft flight from an airport. In this connection, for purposes of reference, it is considered that the aircraft belongs to a fleet (even if the fleet has only a single aircraft). Also for reference purposes, the flight is associated with a departure airport and an arrival airport. The method of this embodiment includes:
a. receiving in a first computer process a conditions input that includes at least one member of a set including departure airport conditions, arrival airport conditions, and fleet conditions; and
b. estimating in a second computer process the amount of delay based on the conditions input.
(For purposes of this description and the following claims, the first and second processes can be distinct processes, or the second process may be part of the first process.)
In further related embodiments, the conditions input includes at least two members of the set (optionally all three members of the set). Additionally, estimating the amount of delay includes separately determining a delay contribution from each member of the set included in the conditions input. Under circumstances wherein the conditions input includes departure airport conditions, determining the delay contribution from the departure airport conditions may include determining, for the departure airport, the departure demand and the departure capacity.
In a further related embodiment, the departure airport conditions may include weather at the departure airport, at an applicable departure time (or time interval), and determining departure capacity at the departure airport includes evaluating a departure capacity function mapping weather conditions to capacity based on weather. The departure capacity function may be a table that is updated in real time on the basis of live air traffic data and weather condition data. In addition, determining departure demand may include accessing a flight schedule database and, optionally, live air traffic data. Also optionally, the flight schedule database may be updated in real time on the basis of live air traffic data.
Determining the delay contribution from the departure airport conditions may include evaluating a first delay function of departure demand and departure capacity to obtain a preliminary departure delay contribution. Additionally, determining the delay contribution from the departure airport conditions may include determining a recent average departure delay and evaluating a second delay function of the recent average departure delay and the preliminary departure delay contribution.
Analogous embodiments permit consideration of arrival airport conditions. Hence the conditions input may include arrival airport conditions, and determining the delay contribution from the arrival airport conditions then includes determining, for the arrival airport, the arrival demand and the arrival capacity.
In a further related embodiment, the arrival airport conditions include weather at the arrival airport, at an applicable arrival time, and determining arrival capacity at the arrival airport includes evaluating an arrival capacity function mapping weather conditions to capacity based on weather. The arrival capacity function may be a table that is updated in real time on the basis of live air traffic data and weather condition data.
In addition, determining arrival demand may include accessing a flight schedule database and, optionally, live air traffic data. The flight schedule database may be updated in real time on the basis of live air traffic data.
In related embodiments, determining the delay contribution from the arrival airport conditions includes evaluating a first delay function of arrival demand and arrival capacity to obtain a preliminary arrival delay contribution. Determining the arrival delay contribution from the arrival airport conditions may include determining a recent average arrival delay and evaluating a second delay function of the recent average arrival delay and the preliminary arrival delay contribution.
In other related embodiments, determining the delay contribution from fleet conditions includes determining when an aircraft is first likely to be available for the planned flight. In turn, determining when an aircraft is first likely to be available may include (i) accessing a flight segment database identifying, for an aircraft of the planned flight, an immediately previous flight number and departing airport; and (ii) estimating a landing time when the immediately previous flight shall have landed at the departure airport. In a further embodiment, if the landing time estimated is later by more than a threshold amount than the planned departure time, then determining when an aircraft is first likely to be available includes determining when an alternative aircraft is first likely to be available.
In another embodiment, determining the delay contribution from fleet conditions includes accessing historical fleet performance data providing historical performance of the fleet. Optionally, the historical fleet performance data include on-time performance data.
In yet another embodiment, determining the delay contribution from at least one of departure airport conditions and arrival airport conditions includes using official airport delay data. Optionally, determining the delay contribution from each of departure airport conditions and arrival airport conditions includes using official airport delay data.
In another embodiment, the invention provides a system for estimating, in real time, the amount of any delay, from a planned departure time, in departure of an aircraft flight from an airport. In this embodiment, the aircraft belongs to a fleet, the flight is associated with a departure airport and an arrival airport. The system of this embodiment includes:
a first computer process for receiving a conditions input that includes at least one member of a set including departure airport conditions, arrival airport conditions, and fleet conditions; and
a second computer process for estimating the amount of delay based on the conditions input.
In a further related embodiment, (i) the conditions input includes at least two members of the set and (ii) the second computer process for estimating the amount of delay includes processes for separately determining a delay contribution from each member of the set included in the conditions input.
In another embodiment, the invention provides a digital electronic storage medium containing data correlating, with each of a series of at least three quantized weather conditions, the capacity of an airport to support departing flights. In a further related embodiment, the digital electronic storage medium contains data, correlating with each of a series of at least four quantized weather conditions, the capacity of an airport to support departing flights. Another embodiment provides a digital electronic storage medium containing data correlating, with each of a series of at least three quantized weather conditions, the capacity of an airport to support arriving flights. In a further embodiment, there is provided a digital electronic storage medium containing data, correlating with each of a series of at least four quantized weather conditions, the capacity of an airport to support arriving flights.
In yet another embodiment, there is provided a system for estimating, in real time, the amount of any delay, from a planned departure time, in departure of an aircraft flight from an airport. The system embodiment includes:
a user entry process permitting a user to generate a delay query that provides flight parameters over a communications network sufficient to determine the aircraft flight;
a delay determination process, in communication with the user entry process, that, substantially contemporaneously with the delay query, estimates a delay parameter associated with any delay in departure of the aircraft flight specified by the query; and
a presentation process, in communication with the delay determination process, that presents to the user the delay parameter.
Alternatively, or in addition, the delay determination process estimates a delay parameter associated with any delay in departure of the aircraft flight specified by the query, the delay parameter being a measure of the probability of a delay in departure. The measure may be discrete or continuous. If it is discrete it may be at least bi-valued and optionally at least tri-valued.
Alternatively or in addition, the delay parameter may be an estimate of at least one of the most probable time of departure and the most probable amount of delay in departure. Also alternatively, the presentation process presents to the user delay information corresponding to the delay parameter. The delay information may be a notification delivered a specified duration before the most probable time of departure. In a further embodiment, the notification is delivered over a network and triggers an alarm.
In another embodiment of the present invention there is provided a method of deriving, as a function of weather, the capacity of an airport to handle aircraft departures and aircraft arrivals. The method of this embodiment includes:
providing historical flight data for airport, over a plurality of specified time intervals, including actual departures and actual arrivals, weather conditions, and demand for departures and demand for arrivals;
selecting occasions in such intervals when demand for departures and demand for such arrivals exceeds actual arrivals and actual departures;
quantizing weather conditions for such occasions to produce quantized data identifying weather conditions for each such occasion; and
determining capacity of the airport to handle aircraft departures and aircraft arrivals from data pertinent to such occasions as a function of quantized weather values.
Optionally, capacity for departures and arrivals may instead be determined separately, in which case the above method is simplified, since the other of departures and arrivals may be ignored. Alternatively, capacity may be determined taking into account interaction between arrival and departure capacity. In a further embodiment therefore, determining capacity of the airport includes assuming, for each quantized weather value, a total capacity for departures and arrivals, such total capacity being the sum of arrival capacity and departure capacity. Optionally, assuming such total capacity further includes assuming a priority for providing arrival capacity sufficient to service arrival demand ahead of providing departure capacity sufficient to service departure demand.